China may opt for 'two children' policy in future, says senior official

China recently relaxed its tight birth control rules slightly, allowing couples to qualify for a second birth if one of the partners was an only child. Photograph: Wang Zhao/AFP/Getty Images After decades of enforcing a one-child policy, China may in the future allow every couple to have two children, a senior family planning official has said. China's national health and family planning commission will study the impact of a universal two-child rule, its head of research, Ma Xu, told state news agency Xinhua, adding that there was no specific timetable for the decision. Experts said it was inevitable that China would make the shift, but probably not for several years. While most couples face large fines if they have more than one child, there are several exemptions, notably for ethnic minorities and rural residents. China recently relaxed its tight birth control rules slightly, allowing couples to qualify for a second birth if one of the partners was an only child; previously, both had to be without siblings. The move affects a relatively small proportion of families, but experts saw it as opening the door to further reform as the labour force begins to shrink and China faces a rapidly ageing population. Ma, who is also a deputy to the National People's Congress, spoke in the runup to the annual session of the largely rubber-stamp parliament, which opens in Beijing on Wednesday. He told Xinhua: "If the policy is introduced, the population would increase 10 million every year, which will put a lot of pressure on society." He said the latest survey showed that 60-65% of people in urban areas able to have children and 90% in rural areas were willing to have a second child. Many experts and officials have lobbied for a two-child rule, in some cases seeing it as a step towards ending birth control policies entirely. They argue China faces a demographic timebomb and many believe changes need to be made rapidly. Zhang Chewei, a population expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said it would take a year or two before the impact of the recent change was clear. "But there is no doubt that the two-child policy will be completely opened in future," he said. Yuan Xin, a policy expert at Nankai University in Tianjin, said there were concerns that changing the rules too quickly could have a dramatic effect on the allocation of resources and economic development. "At present, we cannot skip to the stage of a two-child policy without any restrictions … However, our policy will be looser and looser," he said. Yuan said if the new rules had the effects predicted, a universal two-child policy could be expected after the current five-year plan ends in 2020. Further policy adjustments would be a matter for the next generation. Du Peng, an expert on aging at Renmin University in Beijing, said a sudden opening of the policy might cause an abrupt increase in births. He noted that a 2006 strategy paper on population set a goal of controlling the fertility rate at 1.8 until 2036. In most industrialised countries, a sustained rate of 2.1 is required for a population to remain stable over the long term. Many experts estimate the current rate in China is around 1.5, with some believing it could be lower.